A decline of 31% for the entire year is expected. This includes a 75% drop in revenue over the next two months and continued losses over the rest of the year reaching $355 billion. Travel industry losses will result in a cumulative GDP impact of $450 billion in 2020. We project the US economy to enter a protracted recession based on the expected downturn in travel alone. The recession is likely to last at least three quarters with the lowest point in the second quarter of 2020. A decline of $55 billion in taxes will be realized as a result of travel declines in 2020. The US economy is projected to lose 4.6 million jobs as a result of travel declines in 2020. The unemployment rate of 3.5% in February will rise substantially in the coming months. Travel-related employment losses alone will push the unemployment rate up to 6.3% over the next few months.
Source: Tourism Economics